Friday 20 May 2011

Time for Zeti

One name that should perhaps be in the frame for the top IMF role is Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz. She took over as the head of Bank Negara Malaysia in 2000, unusual given her gender. However, the appointment was a promotion, and recognised her skill at handling Malaysia's situation during and after the Asian financial crisis.
Whether or not she agreed with Dr Mahatir's metaphorical two fingers to the IMF rescue plan, I don't know, but the subsequent recovery of Malaysia economy is testament to a well-implemented policy.
Having trundled along in 2005/6 at around 2.50/$, the Ringgit declined in 1997 to 3.80/$ as its ASEAN neighbours felt the heat in H2 1997. In the first half of 1998the Ringgit moved lower to 4.40/$.
The capital controls introduced in September 1998 certainly shocked the market, as Dr M countered the Ringitt speculators. The Ringgit was pegged at 3.80/$, a stronger level than was perhaps expected. However, pegging the Ringgit ensured stability and meant that genuine investors had a base point for their future plans.
Coming off the peg was harder to judge. Hot money came into Malaysia in 2004 in anticipation of a de-pegging and a strengthening of the currency. Malaysia knows that it is part of the greater China region with respect to its trade and competitive position. China was under pressure from the USA to float its currency. When the Yuan FX rate was relaxed in July 2005, Malaysia quickly and quietly depegged the Ringgit while all the markets were focused on the Yuan. A lucky but nevitable break for Malaysia
Bank Negara adopted a managed float after depegging. Today, with the MYR at 3/$ compared with the peg of 3.8, the currency has clawed back much of Asian crisis losses.
Banks in Malaysia have had tricky times in the early 1990s and even Bank Negara struggled after some specualtive trades around that time. But since the crisis of 1997, BNM and Dr Zeti, in particular, have been performed well.
Apart from cocking a snook at the IMF and its one-size-fits-all policy, Dr Zeti has a good understanding of how Islamic finance can run alongside traditional banking.
At 64 years old she is a couple of years older the Strauss Kahn; furthermore, earlier this year,she was reconfirmed in her current job for the next 5 years so it might be that time is not on her side. Someone once told me that she was a gooner - not sure if that's true, but it is a slight blot on her otherwise impeccable credentials to be the new head of the IMF.

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